Ciências Florestais

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====== Time Series Analysis and Climate Variables of Piracicaba, SP ======
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**Author**: [[opensci:2025:ricardo|Ricardo Miyajima]]

**Overview**:Piracicaba is a city in the interior of São Paulo, which brings together characteristics of the interior city and the big cities.
Famous for having one of the most traditional university in the country, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz – ESALQ, a reference in the areas of teaching, research and extension.
For this exercise, a spreadsheet was used with raw data on the city's climate, that is, historical data since 1902.
In view of this database, the objective of the study was to estimate the probability of occurrence of the El Nino phenomenon as a binary dependent variable as a function of average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, precipitation and drought indicator. 



**Raw Data and Code used**

  *[[https://posit.cloud/content/10094627|RCloud Code to Data Analysis]] 
  *[[https://github.com/ricardomiyajima/Dados-clim-ticos/blob/main/clima_dados.xlsx|Raw Data in GitHub]]

**Plots Generated**

 {{:opensci:2025:ricardoclima:ocorrencia_el_nino_timeline_dados_clima.png?500|}}

Figure 1. Occurrence of El Niño over time

{{:opensci:2025:ricardoclima:ocorrencia_conjunta_timeline_dados_clima.png?500|}}

Figure 2. Time series of climate variables

{{:opensci:2025:ricardoclima:heatmap_dados_clima.png?500|}}

Figure 3. Correlation of variables of interest